Fraction · Market read for brokers

The Equity Brief

July 2026

This month

Rates are parked. Your renewal clients still need a way through.

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on June 10, its fifth hold in a row. The next call is July 15, and the market is pricing another hold. So the "wait for the cut" renewal plan, the one a lot of clients are quietly running, is out of road.

The C.D. Howe Monetary Policy Council spells out why: hold through December, then a likely move up to 2.5% by June 2027. No cut is coming to rescue the payment. The renewal question has quietly changed from "what rate can I get?" to "how do I keep the payment manageable?"

By the numbers

The cut isn't coming to the rescue

Prime is parked at 4.45%, and the forward guidance points up, not down. The C.D. Howe council expects the overnight rate to hold through year-end, with the next move a likely hike to 2.5% by mid-2027. The read for your book: don't build a renewal plan around a rate cut that bails out the payment before the client re-signs.

The squeeze is pushing clients to alt and private

Mortgage debt crossed $2.4 trillion, and arrears are climbing fastest in Ontario and Toronto. The clients who can't requalify at the bank are landing at alt and private lenders, and the Globe reports how hard it is for them to climb back to a prime lender once they're there. That's a growing slice of your pipeline that needs a real plan, not just a placement.

The broker play

For the equity-rich, payment-sensitive client, refinancing into a higher monthly payment is the exact thing they're trying to avoid. A no-monthly-payment equity solution keeps the home and the deal alive without forcing a worse rate. And we just made it sharper: our card now leads with a 3-year at 6.99%, no monthly payment, no prepayment penalties after 6 months. It's the placement most brokers still aren't leading with.